Arsenal are level on 21 points with Manchester City at the top of the Premier League after Saturday’s Matchweek 8 results, and Opta’s supercomputer now makes Mikel Arteta’s side favourites for the title.

City lost a league game for the first time this season, beaten 2-1 at Aston Villa in the early kick-off after winning their first seven matches. Arsenal took advantage a few hours later, beating Everton 2-0 at the Emirates Stadium with goals from their two centre-backs, Ezri Konsa and Gabriel. City stay top on goal difference, +11 to Arsenal’s +8, but the momentum of the afternoon sat with the champions.

How Saturday changed the table

City’s defeat at Villa Park came from two errors. Marc Guehi miscontrolled the ball in the build-up to the opener, John McGinn played in Nicolas Jackson, and Jackson scored his second after the hour when his low shot went underneath Gianluigi Donnarumma. Erling Haaland, back from the foot injury that kept him out of Tuesday’s 5-1 Champions League win over AEK Athens, headed City’s goal from an Iliman Ndiaye cross. City had seven shots on target to Villa’s two, and Villa goalkeeper Zion Suzuki made a series of saves to protect the lead. It was Villa’s fourth home league win in a row against City, and it lifted them to sixth on 11 points. The win had been building all week, with Emery keeping Emiliano Buendia in his side for the game, and Villa’s week has also carried the separate question of Alejandro Garnacho’s loan deal.

Arsenal’s win was more routine. Konsa opened the scoring in the seventh minute, finishing close in after Gabriel flicked on Martin Odegaard’s corner, which ended a run of 13 league matches without a set-piece goal, excluding penalties. Gabriel cleared off his own line in the first half, landed awkwardly on his knee soon after, and still rose at the back post in the 68th minute to head in Ben White’s cross. It was his 200th Premier League appearance, and he did it with William Saliba still absent through injury. Arteta said afterwards: “He’s one of the best centre backs in the world, no question, with the impact he has in both boxes.”

What Opta are saying

After Saturday’s results, Opta’s supercomputer gives Arsenal a 53.82% chance of winning the title, with a predicted points total of 79.55. City are down to 34.39%, with a predicted total of 76.11 points. No other side is above 6%: Brighton are rated at 5.46%, Liverpool at 3.29% and Chelsea at 1.42%. Eight games is early for any model, and both leaders have played one game more than Brighton and Liverpool, but the direction of travel is clear. A week ago City’s perfect record made them the default pick. One defeat, and the model now prefers the side that has conceded the fewest goals in the division.

Why the model favours Arsenal

Arsenal have conceded five goals in eight games, the best defensive record in the league, and they have done it while Saliba has been missing. Gabriel’s performance against Everton showed why that matters at the other end too: Arsenal’s two goals came from centre-backs, and their set-piece threat returned after that 13-match run without one. City, by contrast, are scoring freely, 20 goals in eight games, but Saturday showed the cost of individual errors in a side that plays a high line. Enzo Maresca said both Villa goals were avoidable, and pointed to the chances his side created at the other end. Both things can be true: City had seven shots on target and still lost, because the two chances they gave away were finished.

The pack behind the top two

Brighton are third on 16 points from seven games, with 23 goals scored, the most in the division, and they play their game in hand at Liverpool on Sunday. Liverpool are fifth on 12 points, so a Brighton win at Anfield would take them to 19, within two points of the top, while a Liverpool win would close the gap to six. Chelsea are fourth on 13 points after losing 2-0 at home to Tottenham on Saturday, and Villa’s win moved them above the group on 10 points that includes Brentford, Leeds, Everton and Ipswich. The other Saturday game finished Coventry 0-1 Fulham, a result that left Coventry 19th on six points.

What happens next

Matchweek 8 finishes on Sunday with five games: Crystal Palace against Newcastle, Hull City against Brentford, Liverpool against Brighton, Manchester United against Bournemouth, and Sunderland against Leeds. The Liverpool and Brighton game is the one that affects the top of the table directly. Arsenal and City do not play again in the league until Matchweek 9, and they stay level on 21 points whatever happens on Sunday.